IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Central Arkansas
Southland
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-7.0	#285
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	79.7	#13
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.4	#208

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.6	#319

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.7%	9.4%	3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.3	14.4	15.4

.500 or above	16.6%	49.9%	15.3%
.500 or above in Conference	46.3%	71.7%	45.4%
Conference Champion	2.8%	10.0%	2.6%
Last Place in Conference	7.2%	1.4%	7.4%

First Four	1.2%	0.5%	1.2%
First Round	3.1%	9.2%	2.9%
Second Round	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi (Away) - 3.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 6
Quad 3	1 - 5	1 - 11
Quad 4	8 - 6	9 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	61	@ Mississippi	L	69-88	4%
Nov 26, 2020	219	Arkansas St.	L	78-81	39%
Nov 27, 2020	300	Jackson St.	W	78-77	54%
Dec 01, 2020	135	@ Missouri St.	L	74-86	14%
Dec 06, 2020	127	@ Arkansas Little Rock	L	76-88	13%
Dec 08, 2020	52	@ Saint Louis	L	68-88	4%
Dec 12, 2020	46	@ Arkansas	L	74-94	4%
Dec 16, 2020	72	@ Mississippi St.	L	69-87	6%
Dec 29, 2020	2	@ Baylor	L	63-91	1%
Jan 02, 2021	306	@ McNeese St.	L	82-84	45%
Jan 06, 2021	312	New Orleans	W	86-81	67%
Jan 09, 2021	246	Sam Houston St.	W	84-83	54%
Jan 13, 2021	136	@ Stephen F. Austin	L	77-89	16%
Jan 16, 2021	234	Nicholls St.	W	82-81	52%
Jan 23, 2021	173	@ Abilene Christian	L	74-83	21%
Jan 27, 2021	319	@ SE Louisiana	W	85-84	52%
Jan 30, 2021	283	Northwestern St.	W	87-84	59%
Feb 06, 2021	306	McNeese St.	W	85-81	64%
Feb 10, 2021	312	@ New Orleans	L	83-84	47%
Feb 13, 2021	246	@ Sam Houston St.	L	81-86	34%
Feb 17, 2021	136	Stephen F. Austin	L	80-86	32%
Feb 20, 2021	234	@ Nicholls St.	L	79-84	34%
Feb 27, 2021	173	Abilene Christian	L	77-80	39%
Mar 03, 2021	319	SE Louisiana	W	88-81	71%
Mar 06, 2021	283	@ Northwestern St.	L	84-87	40%
Projected Record						9 - 16	7 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southland Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st												0.1	0.5	1.0	0.8	0.4	0.1		2.8	1st
2nd										0.0	0.3	1.2	2.0	1.3	0.2	0.0	0.0		5.0	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.1	1.6	3.0	1.5	0.3	0.0				6.5	3rd
4th									0.1	1.8	3.8	1.8	0.2	0.0					7.8	4th
5th								0.1	1.3	4.0	2.5	0.4	0.0						8.3	5th
6th							0.0	0.8	4.0	3.5	0.7	0.0							9.1	6th
7th						0.0	0.5	3.6	4.4	0.9	0.1								9.4	7th
8th					0.0	0.4	2.9	5.2	1.9	0.1									10.4	8th
9th					0.2	2.2	5.1	2.7	0.3	0.0									10.5	9th
10th				0.4	2.1	4.5	2.9	0.5	0.0										10.3	10th
11th		0.0	0.3	1.9	3.7	2.8	0.6	0.0											9.3	11th
12th	0.0	0.5	1.7	2.7	1.7	0.5	0.0												7.1	12th
13th	0.3	1.0	1.2	0.7	0.2	0.0													3.4	13th

Total	0.3	1.6	3.2	5.7	7.9	10.3	11.9	12.8	12.1	10.4	8.9	6.6	4.2	2.6	1.0	0.4	0.1			Total

Southland Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	98.5%	0.1		0.1
15-1	95.1%	0.4		0.3	0.0
14-2	80.0%	0.8		0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0
13-3	37.7%	1.0		0.4	0.4	0.2
12-4	11.6%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
11-5	1.1%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.0%
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	2.8%	2.8		1.4	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.1%		71.6%	59.7%	11.9%	12.8											0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0		29.6%
15-1	0.4%		40.3%	40.3%		13.4									0.0			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2
14-2	1.0%		31.6%	31.6%		14.4													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.7
13-3	2.6%		26.5%	26.5%		14.9													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	1.9
12-4	4.2%		17.5%	17.5%		15.4														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	3.5
11-5	6.6%		10.9%	10.9%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	5.8
10-6	8.9%		6.3%	6.3%		15.8														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	8.3
9-7	10.4%		3.3%	3.3%		16.0															0.0	0.0	0.3	10.1
8-8	12.1%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.1	12.0
7-9	12.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	12.8
6-10	11.9%																							11.9
5-11	10.3%																							10.3
4-12	7.9%																							7.9
3-13	5.7%																							5.7
2-14	3.2%																							3.2
1-15	1.6%																							1.6
0-16	0.3%																							0.3

Total	100%		3.7%	3.7%	0.0%	15.3									0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	1.0	2.1	96.3		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.2%